Bert Whitehead, M.B.A., J.D. ©
Commodities are hot! When is the best time to buy?
Most of us are inclined to try to figure out the best time to buy an investment. However, studies by academicians, pension funds, and other objective sources, however, have shown that market timing never works. It is useful to know the three rationales for market timing to better understand why it is futile: the Past, the Present, and the Future. We also explain the alternative to market timing.
The Future: Doomsday scenarios are generally based on some ‘inevitable’ future event which is unprecedented although it may have some basis in truth. Buy commodities because the world is running out of oil! Buy gold because China has too much of our debt! Inflation will cause worldwide financial collapse…so buy commodities! Timing systems based on outlandish possible scenarios sell investment newsletters, and get headlines.
Sometimes a prediction will actually come true, e.g. in the early 90’s globalization and computerization were predicted to dramatically drive the stock market up. That did happen, but the Dow never got to 36,000 as some predicted. There are too many countervailing forces in the economy to predict the future, and exaggerated claims don’t come true because they are offset by other economic changes.
Real estate was supposed to crash by the end of the 1990’s because of demographic trends, e.g. the end of the baby boomer house-buying era. Instead, real estate boomed because more boomers bought 2nd homes, households became smaller, people live longer, immigration swells our population, etc. These other factors offset the expected drop in demand for housing. When housing did crash about 10 years later, it was totally unexpected by the experts – and caused by artificially low interest rates!
The Present; The ‘recency effect’ occurs when you expect that what ever is happening now, or has been happening, will continue to happen. When the stock market is falling, people generally believe it will continue dropping and run for the exits. When it is rising, people become convinced it will always keep rising and pile investment dollars on just as the market peaks.
The market seeks balance by testing extremes. If anything, it is likely that whatever is happening now will not continue, certainly not indefinitely. Again, other economic factors come into play that offset existing trends. Relying on current trends to continue is a financial recipe for heartburn.
The Past: Our whole investment industry is predicated on analyzing past performance of a stock, or group of stocks, or a money manager to determine future performance. As you probably know the tagline on every investment recommendation is: ”Past performance is no guarantee of future returns!”
There are long-term 15-20 year trends in the markets that are remarkably consistent over any 15-20 year period. For example, a portfolio of 50% stocks and 50% bonds over the past 80 years has averaged 8.2%. Interestingly, most of the 15-20 year periods during that time frame show an annual return in that range.
That is no guarantee that this long-term historical trend will continue, but it is useful for long-term planning purposes. Most importantly, a 15-20 year trend offers no clues about how you should invest your money now.
The Alternative: So if market timing based any of these three rationales is unreliable, how do you know whether you should invest in commodities now? We espouse an approach based on balancing your portfolio according to your particular situation. We do not predict or rely on timing of any exogenous factors such as oil prices, the likelihood of war, the possibility of a California earthquake, etc.
What is important is that your portfolio takes into account the endogenous factors in your life. This includes job stability, how many kids you have to send to college, the amount of risk you take outside the portfolio (e.g. owning a business, real estate investments, etc.). A key factor is: “How much risk do you need to take to reach your goals?” If you are comfortably retired, it is ridiculous to measure your portfolio’s suitability based on your rate of return…it’s more important to make sure you don’t lose what you’ve got!
Our approach is known as ‘Functional Asset Allocation.’ It addresses the reality that there are only three possibilities that your portfolio has to deal with: Deflation (what we are experiencing now); Inflation (which we may have to deal with next); and prosperity (which hopefully will return soon).
Treasury bonds are the absolute best protection against deflation. Yes, they always have a very low yield, but when deflation hits – ‘safety trumps yield.’ A good mixture of large cap, small cap and international stocks has proven to be the best approach in times of prosperity. Inflation is hedged by having sufficient cash reserves (since short term interest rate increase during inflation), having a long-term fixed rate mortgage, as well as unhedged foreign mutual funds or gold which protect against a drop in the dollar.
With these simple investments in your portfolio, you don’t have to guess what will happen next. Whatever happens, your portfolio will be able to handle and grow. This approach runs counter to the advice you get from the media and most investment advisors because they base their theories on the assumption that you want to get the best rate of return you can…and only they can help you time the markets. Maybe that is true of billion dollar pension funds, but for real people it is nonsense because you have a finite lifespan. Your portfolio has to reflect the realities in your life.
So what exactly is the function of investing in commodities? For ordinary people, investing in commodities is actually dysfunctional – it doesn’t reliably protect against inflation, deflation, or necessarily rise during prosperity. It is a gamble, pure and simple. I suggest that it is preferable to take the $25,000 you have been told to invest in commodities and take it to the craps table in Las Vegas. At least there when you lose it, they give you a really nice room and free dinners. Charles Schwab never does that…
Thursday, July 30, 2009
Wednesday, July 15, 2009
What Have We Learned?
Bert Whitehead, M.B.A., J.D.
Who knows what will happen in the next few weeks, but the markets have bounced off their lows from March (except real estate…). Some say we are in recovery mode, but I’m not so sure. Maybe it’s time we take a deep breath and ask ourselves what we have learned from this experience. Here are 5 lessons most of use should have learned before, but had to re-learn.
1) This recession caught everyone off guard. Most economists didn’t see it coming, nor the government, not even the money managers who are always bragging about their superior market timing. There were a couple of experts who now are claiming that they did indeed predict this, and it is inevitable that some did accurately predict this.
So can we conclude that we should find out who these prescient money mavens were, and start doing what they tell us to do?
I think not. To begin with, market predictions are a lot like fortune cookies: usually they are a bit vague and so, after the fact, can be construed to be ‘right on the money.’ For example, a forecast in 2007 noted that “the market near-term can be expected to be very volatile and the winners will be not the stocks you would generally predict.” Looking back, that seems to be what happened…but it is hardly specific (or maybe you have to subscribe to the newsletter to get the specifics!).
It is obvious that if a newsletter publisher could predict the market, they wouldn’t be spreading their secrets – they would be making a killing trading stocks. “There is no ‘guru’ and many false prophets.”
2) When we think back to the earlier part of this decade, we all knew that the government was stretching to make mortgages affordable to increase the percentage of homeowners, a noble social goal. Maybe we shook our heads at how much the standards had changed, and how easy credit was to obtain. Of course the banks certainly knew what they were doing.
Now it is easy to see how this house of cards couldn’t last. But few could see the huge impact it would have in the financial markets. Most stock brokerages and financial advisors don’t even advise their clients on real estate. To them, the world of finance was all about stocks and bonds. Most consumers have to rely on commission-driven mortgage brokers. So that’s one thing we have learned: “Real estate is an important financial asset and people need good independent advice to make sound decisions.”
3) When interest rates started to rise, especially ‘safe bonds’ like municipal bonds, or GM bonds, it seemed to be very savvy to start chasing yields. Then we find out that these high-flying securities are much more risky than they used to be. This shouldn’t be a new lesson: “Higher returns always mean higher risks.” Often we just have to learn it again every ten years or so (remember dot-coms?).
4) Everywhere we turned frantic financial advice abounded: “Get out now, the market is going to tank!” “Now’s the time to buy – stocks are very undervalued!” When people ask me where the market is going, I review last week’s survey results of the 5% of the money managers who do 95% of the trading. Exactly half of them were convinced the market was headed up, and half were sure the market was going to drop.
The survey is run every day, and the results are always the same. Why? Because for every buyer there always has to be a seller…and one of them is wrong! It’s not the smart people selling to stupid people, because these 5% of the traders do 95% of the trades. The media is like financial pornography. They get you excited, and encourage you to act on impulse; you act on your ‘gut instincts.’ Then you are inevitably disappointed and discouraged with the result. Another lesson re-learned: “To be a successful long-term investor, you must ignore the investment media hype.”
5) If you were a prudent investor, you would analyze every investment or have your advisor do it professionally. There is historical data going back decades, and it is much easier to see the trends when the data is displayed in colorful charts and graphs. Alas, none of those trends forecast what would happen in the past 2-3 years. Could this be a new lesson learned(?):
“Past performance does not guarantee future results.”
Many investment models, including many derived from Modern Portfolio Theory, proved useless in this market. In our next blog we will review the defeats and successes of current investment theories…unless a more critical development arises which requires comment.
Who knows what will happen in the next few weeks, but the markets have bounced off their lows from March (except real estate…). Some say we are in recovery mode, but I’m not so sure. Maybe it’s time we take a deep breath and ask ourselves what we have learned from this experience. Here are 5 lessons most of use should have learned before, but had to re-learn.
1) This recession caught everyone off guard. Most economists didn’t see it coming, nor the government, not even the money managers who are always bragging about their superior market timing. There were a couple of experts who now are claiming that they did indeed predict this, and it is inevitable that some did accurately predict this.
So can we conclude that we should find out who these prescient money mavens were, and start doing what they tell us to do?
I think not. To begin with, market predictions are a lot like fortune cookies: usually they are a bit vague and so, after the fact, can be construed to be ‘right on the money.’ For example, a forecast in 2007 noted that “the market near-term can be expected to be very volatile and the winners will be not the stocks you would generally predict.” Looking back, that seems to be what happened…but it is hardly specific (or maybe you have to subscribe to the newsletter to get the specifics!).
It is obvious that if a newsletter publisher could predict the market, they wouldn’t be spreading their secrets – they would be making a killing trading stocks. “There is no ‘guru’ and many false prophets.”
2) When we think back to the earlier part of this decade, we all knew that the government was stretching to make mortgages affordable to increase the percentage of homeowners, a noble social goal. Maybe we shook our heads at how much the standards had changed, and how easy credit was to obtain. Of course the banks certainly knew what they were doing.
Now it is easy to see how this house of cards couldn’t last. But few could see the huge impact it would have in the financial markets. Most stock brokerages and financial advisors don’t even advise their clients on real estate. To them, the world of finance was all about stocks and bonds. Most consumers have to rely on commission-driven mortgage brokers. So that’s one thing we have learned: “Real estate is an important financial asset and people need good independent advice to make sound decisions.”
3) When interest rates started to rise, especially ‘safe bonds’ like municipal bonds, or GM bonds, it seemed to be very savvy to start chasing yields. Then we find out that these high-flying securities are much more risky than they used to be. This shouldn’t be a new lesson: “Higher returns always mean higher risks.” Often we just have to learn it again every ten years or so (remember dot-coms?).
4) Everywhere we turned frantic financial advice abounded: “Get out now, the market is going to tank!” “Now’s the time to buy – stocks are very undervalued!” When people ask me where the market is going, I review last week’s survey results of the 5% of the money managers who do 95% of the trading. Exactly half of them were convinced the market was headed up, and half were sure the market was going to drop.
The survey is run every day, and the results are always the same. Why? Because for every buyer there always has to be a seller…and one of them is wrong! It’s not the smart people selling to stupid people, because these 5% of the traders do 95% of the trades. The media is like financial pornography. They get you excited, and encourage you to act on impulse; you act on your ‘gut instincts.’ Then you are inevitably disappointed and discouraged with the result. Another lesson re-learned: “To be a successful long-term investor, you must ignore the investment media hype.”
5) If you were a prudent investor, you would analyze every investment or have your advisor do it professionally. There is historical data going back decades, and it is much easier to see the trends when the data is displayed in colorful charts and graphs. Alas, none of those trends forecast what would happen in the past 2-3 years. Could this be a new lesson learned(?):
“Past performance does not guarantee future results.”
Many investment models, including many derived from Modern Portfolio Theory, proved useless in this market. In our next blog we will review the defeats and successes of current investment theories…unless a more critical development arises which requires comment.
Monday, June 22, 2009
Maddoff Schemes and 5 More Financial Pitfalls
Bert Whitehead, M.B.A., J.D. © 2009
You probably know someone who knows someone who invested in Maddoff’s Ponzi Scheme. These ‘investments’ pay handsome returns, but not because the money is actually invested, but because investors who cash in on their ‘profits’ are paid off with cash received from new suckers.
With the recent market collapse, we are hearing of more and more of these frauds. That’s because these scams run out of cash when people take money out faster than new ‘investors’ are putting new money in. As Ben Bernanke quipped, “When the tide goes out, we can see who’s naked.”
This blog will discuss the Maddoff scheme as well as other classic ways investors lose money in investments -- and how you can protect yourself. Some of the safeguards I will discuss have been outlined in a series of articles by my colleague, George Marrotta, a Research Fellow at Stanford’s Hoover Institution which I have linked if you are interested in perusing.
1) The simple rule that Maddoff’s investors ignored is: “Don’t Let Your Advisor Have Custody of your Investments.” Maddoff’s investors sent their money directly to him; the paper statements they received were made up by him and his staff. Using Schwab or other independent custodians allows you to review your statement directly on-line at any time. Always make out your checks to Schwab with your account number on it, and check your statements to make sure the deposit was received. Cf. www.emarotta.com/article.php?ID=320
2) Even with the safeguard of having an independent custodian custody your assets, it is still possible to get embezzled. There were recently two cases which individual advisors stole several million dollars from client accounts. In these cases, the advisors had very elderly clients and instructed them to sign transfers from their Schwab accounts to the advisor’s account, or the advisor had check writing authorization on their account.
This of course could happen to any of your accounts at a bank. The safeguard is simple: Make sure you review your bank and brokerage statements yourself every month and review withdrawals and transfers out to make sure you know what they were for and you received the money.
3) As we get older, it is much more difficult to keep track of everything in our lives. Your finances are one of the first areas impacted by old-age forgetfulness. If you find yourself becoming confused and forgetful with your finances, it is important to have someone in your life that you trust to review your finances with you. They can double-check to make sure mistakes aren’t being made. Where we notice that a client is becoming forgetful, we will bring it up and suggest a neurological exam, since this condition can greatly impact your financial situation if not dealt with appropriately.
4) The biggest scam I see our clients exposed to are private investment ‘opportunities.’ These usually have very nice glossy sales brochures and a salesman/organizer with a smooth line of snappy patter. These often involve unregistered securities which are virtually impossible to evaluate because there is not adequate financial information, disclosures, conflicts of interest, etc. to work with. We suggest you don’t even consider unregistered securities, even with (or especially with) friends and family. Time-shares are one of these scams.
5) If offered the opportunity to get in on the ground floor, ask them to email you a prospectus or ‘offering memorandum.’ I review a number of these deals every month for clients. Then I explain the risks involved, how the money is being used including payment of the organizers, the conflicts of interest involved, etc. This is the information which is technically ‘disclosed’ but that most people don’t read or understand. Once these factors are explained, clients generally take a more sobering approach to these deals.
6) It is also important to recognize and avoid financial hooks. In many investments the salesperson earns hefty commissions. This is disclosed in the fine print which no one reads. One clue is that you are charged a hefty surrender charge or penalty to get out in the first 5-10 years. For more information, go to www.emarotta.com/article.php?ID=324.
I do believe that a financial advisor should save a client more than the advisory fee charged. Often the savings in taxes, lower investment costs, avoiding commissioned products, insurance evaluation, getting better mortgage deals, etc. produce savings which are readily apparent.
But over my 37 years of doing financial planning, I think I have saved clients even more money by talking them out of inappropriate investments and keeping them from getting scammed.
If you have been dissuaded from an investment by your advisor, I’d like you to let me know about it. I’d like to do a blog someday on ‘Investment Horror Stories!’
You probably know someone who knows someone who invested in Maddoff’s Ponzi Scheme. These ‘investments’ pay handsome returns, but not because the money is actually invested, but because investors who cash in on their ‘profits’ are paid off with cash received from new suckers.
With the recent market collapse, we are hearing of more and more of these frauds. That’s because these scams run out of cash when people take money out faster than new ‘investors’ are putting new money in. As Ben Bernanke quipped, “When the tide goes out, we can see who’s naked.”
This blog will discuss the Maddoff scheme as well as other classic ways investors lose money in investments -- and how you can protect yourself. Some of the safeguards I will discuss have been outlined in a series of articles by my colleague, George Marrotta, a Research Fellow at Stanford’s Hoover Institution which I have linked if you are interested in perusing.
1) The simple rule that Maddoff’s investors ignored is: “Don’t Let Your Advisor Have Custody of your Investments.” Maddoff’s investors sent their money directly to him; the paper statements they received were made up by him and his staff. Using Schwab or other independent custodians allows you to review your statement directly on-line at any time. Always make out your checks to Schwab with your account number on it, and check your statements to make sure the deposit was received. Cf. www.emarotta.com/article.php?ID=320
2) Even with the safeguard of having an independent custodian custody your assets, it is still possible to get embezzled. There were recently two cases which individual advisors stole several million dollars from client accounts. In these cases, the advisors had very elderly clients and instructed them to sign transfers from their Schwab accounts to the advisor’s account, or the advisor had check writing authorization on their account.
This of course could happen to any of your accounts at a bank. The safeguard is simple: Make sure you review your bank and brokerage statements yourself every month and review withdrawals and transfers out to make sure you know what they were for and you received the money.
3) As we get older, it is much more difficult to keep track of everything in our lives. Your finances are one of the first areas impacted by old-age forgetfulness. If you find yourself becoming confused and forgetful with your finances, it is important to have someone in your life that you trust to review your finances with you. They can double-check to make sure mistakes aren’t being made. Where we notice that a client is becoming forgetful, we will bring it up and suggest a neurological exam, since this condition can greatly impact your financial situation if not dealt with appropriately.
4) The biggest scam I see our clients exposed to are private investment ‘opportunities.’ These usually have very nice glossy sales brochures and a salesman/organizer with a smooth line of snappy patter. These often involve unregistered securities which are virtually impossible to evaluate because there is not adequate financial information, disclosures, conflicts of interest, etc. to work with. We suggest you don’t even consider unregistered securities, even with (or especially with) friends and family. Time-shares are one of these scams.
5) If offered the opportunity to get in on the ground floor, ask them to email you a prospectus or ‘offering memorandum.’ I review a number of these deals every month for clients. Then I explain the risks involved, how the money is being used including payment of the organizers, the conflicts of interest involved, etc. This is the information which is technically ‘disclosed’ but that most people don’t read or understand. Once these factors are explained, clients generally take a more sobering approach to these deals.
6) It is also important to recognize and avoid financial hooks. In many investments the salesperson earns hefty commissions. This is disclosed in the fine print which no one reads. One clue is that you are charged a hefty surrender charge or penalty to get out in the first 5-10 years. For more information, go to www.emarotta.com/article.php?ID=324.
I do believe that a financial advisor should save a client more than the advisory fee charged. Often the savings in taxes, lower investment costs, avoiding commissioned products, insurance evaluation, getting better mortgage deals, etc. produce savings which are readily apparent.
But over my 37 years of doing financial planning, I think I have saved clients even more money by talking them out of inappropriate investments and keeping them from getting scammed.
If you have been dissuaded from an investment by your advisor, I’d like you to let me know about it. I’d like to do a blog someday on ‘Investment Horror Stories!’
Wednesday, June 3, 2009
How Long Does It Take to be a Long-Term Investor?
Bert Whitehead, M.B.A., J.D. © 2009
This year’s market bottom in March wiped out all the market gains in your portfolio since 1996 (13 years)! This has left many commentators sniveling about the stock market as an inferior investment vehicle. But I’m sure everyone reading this has consistently been told that you have to be a ‘long-term investor’ to profit in the stock market.
So if 13 years isn’t long enough, how long is long enough?
When I started as a Financial Advisor in 1972 we were in the recession that started in 1967. The Dow hit 1000 in 1967 and didn’t get beyond 1000 again until 1982 (15 years). There was a widespread belief in the 70’s that the market could never go over 1000.
The financial pundits at that time subscribed to the theory that whenever stocks went beyond 1000, companies would always issue more stock. The additional supply would force the stock prices down, So the supply/demand curves intersected at 1000.
This year the market bottomed at 6600 in March ‘wiping out all the gains’ since 1996! But if you look at the peak in 1982 when the Dow was at 1000 and compare it to the peak in 2007 when the Dow hit 14,000, the market rose 9.8% per year ‘peak-to-peak over that 24 years. Clearly the ‘permanent market cap’ at 1000 the academicians theorized has been discredited.
Even measuring the ‘trough-to-trough’ bottoms from 607 in 1974 to 6600 this year (25 years), the market increased an average of 10.0% per year. On top of this add in the 4-6% in historical dividend payouts and the total average annual returns are easily over 12%.
The stock market has consistently been the most accessible investment over the long term! These kinds of returns are available to every person by simply consistently dollar-cost-averaging into a large cap indexed mutual fund over the long term.
Deciding not to invest in the market now, especially for younger people, could be the worst financial decision you could make in your life. And remember: you are younger now than you will ever be for the rest of your life .
This analysis explains why Cambridge Bond Ladders are for 15 years, rather than the 5 years many other advisors suggest. Fifteen years cash flow will last you through any recession. To fully reap the profits of the stock market an investor should have a 25 year horizon. That’s how long is long enough!
This year’s market bottom in March wiped out all the market gains in your portfolio since 1996 (13 years)! This has left many commentators sniveling about the stock market as an inferior investment vehicle. But I’m sure everyone reading this has consistently been told that you have to be a ‘long-term investor’ to profit in the stock market.
So if 13 years isn’t long enough, how long is long enough?
When I started as a Financial Advisor in 1972 we were in the recession that started in 1967. The Dow hit 1000 in 1967 and didn’t get beyond 1000 again until 1982 (15 years). There was a widespread belief in the 70’s that the market could never go over 1000.
The financial pundits at that time subscribed to the theory that whenever stocks went beyond 1000, companies would always issue more stock. The additional supply would force the stock prices down, So the supply/demand curves intersected at 1000.
This year the market bottomed at 6600 in March ‘wiping out all the gains’ since 1996! But if you look at the peak in 1982 when the Dow was at 1000 and compare it to the peak in 2007 when the Dow hit 14,000, the market rose 9.8% per year ‘peak-to-peak over that 24 years. Clearly the ‘permanent market cap’ at 1000 the academicians theorized has been discredited.
Even measuring the ‘trough-to-trough’ bottoms from 607 in 1974 to 6600 this year (25 years), the market increased an average of 10.0% per year. On top of this add in the 4-6% in historical dividend payouts and the total average annual returns are easily over 12%.
The stock market has consistently been the most accessible investment over the long term! These kinds of returns are available to every person by simply consistently dollar-cost-averaging into a large cap indexed mutual fund over the long term.
Deciding not to invest in the market now, especially for younger people, could be the worst financial decision you could make in your life. And remember: you are younger now than you will ever be for the rest of your life .
This analysis explains why Cambridge Bond Ladders are for 15 years, rather than the 5 years many other advisors suggest. Fifteen years cash flow will last you through any recession. To fully reap the profits of the stock market an investor should have a 25 year horizon. That’s how long is long enough!
Tuesday, May 12, 2009
Inflation:The Next Scourge?
Bert Whitehead, M.B.A., J.D. © 2009
The stock market (S&P 500) closed on May 8 ahead of where it was at the beginning of the year. Since the low point on Mar. 9 it has risen 37%. Keep in mind that the stock market is a leading indicator. If recent trends are not a ‘false bottom’ the recession should end in 9 to 18 months, based on historical performance. Of course, we have been reminded that history is not a trustworthy predictor of future results…
There are other signs that the economy is starting to bounce back. Unemployment isn’t rising as fast as it has been, some companies are showing a profit. Consumer confidence is rising. Those are positive factors.
Nonetheless, we are still mired in deflation. Prices are actually dropping (social security recipients are startled that they are not receiving a cost of living adjustment this year). Every month there have been fewer people employed. More companies are going broke, real estate is still in crisis, banks and other financial institutions still haven’t been resuscitated. Now we are seeing state and local governments get in line for federal bailouts. The rest of the world also seems to be caught in this deflationary vortex.
Just as it seems like we might be turning the corner, the pundits are already spooking us about inflation. Inflation may be our next challenge, but further deflation is more likely for the near term and very possible for even the next 10 years. It looks like two of the auto companies are going to end up being owned by the unions and the government, and the financial industry has been in effect ‘federalized.’
Skeptics question whether business decisions will now be politicized, and determined by political considerations rather than by market forces. This could result in many new cars built to be small and energy efficient, which the government wants. But in the past buyers have spurned those in favor of larger vehicles. Will overseas auto companies move in to fill the demand? Unless gasoline prices go back to $4-5/gallon, most Americans want to buy their SUV’s. If Detroit won’t make them, someone else will.
If everything keeps falling in place, and recovery is in sight, we will have to deal with the trillions of dollars in government debt. The fed has been issuing a huge increase in Treasury bonds to fund the Stimulus programs. The concern is that, if and when we do pull out of this deflationary spiral, the world will be awash in US dollars.
This could result in higher interest rates which the government would have to pay to induce people to buy US bonds. Right now, the feds are buying bonds themselves to keep long-term interest rates (and hopefully mortgage rates) down. But at some point we will have to pay the piper. That means that this increase in the money supply will create higher inflation. Or will it?
As with most economic issues, there are too many variables to predict with certainty the outcome. If the dollar drops relative to other currencies, which we would expect with inflation, our goods become cheaper for people in other countries and our exports would increase. Because imports would be more expensive here, we would reduce our trade deficit.
During the 90’s Greenspan was baffled by the low inflation we experienced relative to the growth in the money supply. When he left office, he pinned it on the higher productivity the US enjoyed because we were able to outsource low productive jobs abroad. Generally high productivity which we typically see during recessions holds down inflation. During our current recession we have seen productivity increase, as companies shed less productive jobs.
Another factor is the savings rate of citizens. Japan had virtually no inflation in the 90’s when they increased their national debt exponentially to stimulate their economy. But because their savings rate increased, the extra money supply wasn’t spent and prices stayed level. We are now experiencing a significant increase in consumer savings, and we see a reduction in debt (partly because it’s too hard to get a loan now!). Unless the increased money supply is actually spent, there aren’t more dollars chasing too few goods.
The reality is that inflation will be our next threat if the government keeps spending at the rate they have been. There are factors which may absorb the impact of inflation, so it is not certain how much it will affect us.
In balancing portfolios to protect clients against inflation, we focus on the asset classes which provide the best buffers. Cash and inflation adjusted savings bonds are effective as their yield increases along with inflation. Mortgaged real estate is one of the best protections. While real estate is a long-term inflation hedge, it is too regional to reliably provide much protection unless it is mortgaged at a long-term fixed rate. Unhedged foreign equity mutual funds can be a buffer, except (as we have seen lately) world currencies have been moving up and down together. In some situations we recommend clients buy gold bullion coins.
Inflation is likely to drive interest rates higher, so some clients become concerned because the nominal value of their Treasury bonds drop. Not to worry: the bond will be worth its face value on maturity, and that is what we count on to provide the guaranteed cash flow for your retirement.
Many clients are taking advantage of the lower stock prices now to increase their dollar-cost-averaging into stocks. We are recommending to others that it is a good time to refinance their homes at lower rates to decrease their needed cash flow. When we meet with you next we will look forward to reviewing your portfolio relative to your current situation. We are proud that our clients’ portfolios have weathered this ‘storm of the century’ relatively unscathed and look forward to moving on with you on your journey to “FIPOM” (Financial Independence and Peace of Mind)!
The stock market (S&P 500) closed on May 8 ahead of where it was at the beginning of the year. Since the low point on Mar. 9 it has risen 37%. Keep in mind that the stock market is a leading indicator. If recent trends are not a ‘false bottom’ the recession should end in 9 to 18 months, based on historical performance. Of course, we have been reminded that history is not a trustworthy predictor of future results…
There are other signs that the economy is starting to bounce back. Unemployment isn’t rising as fast as it has been, some companies are showing a profit. Consumer confidence is rising. Those are positive factors.
Nonetheless, we are still mired in deflation. Prices are actually dropping (social security recipients are startled that they are not receiving a cost of living adjustment this year). Every month there have been fewer people employed. More companies are going broke, real estate is still in crisis, banks and other financial institutions still haven’t been resuscitated. Now we are seeing state and local governments get in line for federal bailouts. The rest of the world also seems to be caught in this deflationary vortex.
Just as it seems like we might be turning the corner, the pundits are already spooking us about inflation. Inflation may be our next challenge, but further deflation is more likely for the near term and very possible for even the next 10 years. It looks like two of the auto companies are going to end up being owned by the unions and the government, and the financial industry has been in effect ‘federalized.’
Skeptics question whether business decisions will now be politicized, and determined by political considerations rather than by market forces. This could result in many new cars built to be small and energy efficient, which the government wants. But in the past buyers have spurned those in favor of larger vehicles. Will overseas auto companies move in to fill the demand? Unless gasoline prices go back to $4-5/gallon, most Americans want to buy their SUV’s. If Detroit won’t make them, someone else will.
If everything keeps falling in place, and recovery is in sight, we will have to deal with the trillions of dollars in government debt. The fed has been issuing a huge increase in Treasury bonds to fund the Stimulus programs. The concern is that, if and when we do pull out of this deflationary spiral, the world will be awash in US dollars.
This could result in higher interest rates which the government would have to pay to induce people to buy US bonds. Right now, the feds are buying bonds themselves to keep long-term interest rates (and hopefully mortgage rates) down. But at some point we will have to pay the piper. That means that this increase in the money supply will create higher inflation. Or will it?
As with most economic issues, there are too many variables to predict with certainty the outcome. If the dollar drops relative to other currencies, which we would expect with inflation, our goods become cheaper for people in other countries and our exports would increase. Because imports would be more expensive here, we would reduce our trade deficit.
During the 90’s Greenspan was baffled by the low inflation we experienced relative to the growth in the money supply. When he left office, he pinned it on the higher productivity the US enjoyed because we were able to outsource low productive jobs abroad. Generally high productivity which we typically see during recessions holds down inflation. During our current recession we have seen productivity increase, as companies shed less productive jobs.
Another factor is the savings rate of citizens. Japan had virtually no inflation in the 90’s when they increased their national debt exponentially to stimulate their economy. But because their savings rate increased, the extra money supply wasn’t spent and prices stayed level. We are now experiencing a significant increase in consumer savings, and we see a reduction in debt (partly because it’s too hard to get a loan now!). Unless the increased money supply is actually spent, there aren’t more dollars chasing too few goods.
The reality is that inflation will be our next threat if the government keeps spending at the rate they have been. There are factors which may absorb the impact of inflation, so it is not certain how much it will affect us.
In balancing portfolios to protect clients against inflation, we focus on the asset classes which provide the best buffers. Cash and inflation adjusted savings bonds are effective as their yield increases along with inflation. Mortgaged real estate is one of the best protections. While real estate is a long-term inflation hedge, it is too regional to reliably provide much protection unless it is mortgaged at a long-term fixed rate. Unhedged foreign equity mutual funds can be a buffer, except (as we have seen lately) world currencies have been moving up and down together. In some situations we recommend clients buy gold bullion coins.
Inflation is likely to drive interest rates higher, so some clients become concerned because the nominal value of their Treasury bonds drop. Not to worry: the bond will be worth its face value on maturity, and that is what we count on to provide the guaranteed cash flow for your retirement.
Many clients are taking advantage of the lower stock prices now to increase their dollar-cost-averaging into stocks. We are recommending to others that it is a good time to refinance their homes at lower rates to decrease their needed cash flow. When we meet with you next we will look forward to reviewing your portfolio relative to your current situation. We are proud that our clients’ portfolios have weathered this ‘storm of the century’ relatively unscathed and look forward to moving on with you on your journey to “FIPOM” (Financial Independence and Peace of Mind)!
Monday, April 27, 2009
Are We Turning The Corner Yet?
Bert Whitehead, M.B.A., J.D.
Finally we have seen some positive news on the financial front, and many optimists think we have hit the bottom and the stock market bounced off its low-point. It’s nice to be able to take a breath from the brutal onslaught of bad news over the past year.
We have been preaching about the dangers of being out of the market, even when it is falling, While it has been psychologically stressful to maintain equity positions over the past year, recent market activity points to the reason to refuse to market-time.
Interestingly, the average gain for the S&P 500 in the 1 year following the low close for the 8 bear markets that occurred in the last 50 years is +36.5%. The current bear market is the 9th bear market of the last half century. The closing low point (so far) of this 9th bear market was 677 and it took place 7 weeks ago on 3/09/09. In the last 7 weeks, the S&P 500 has gained 28.5% (not counting the impact of reinvested dividends.
Our clients pay us to ‘watch their backs.’ So without being an outright pessimist I think that we are still in a perilous financial situation. The future of the auto industry is teetering and we may see 2 of the ‘Big 3’ bite the dust in the next few weeks. The economic reality goes even deeper than that. We are restructuring our national economy to be able to participate in a global economy.
Our prosperity over the past 15 years was based on a world-wide spending spree, fueled by cheap credit and over-leveraged real estate. The current government nostrums are designed to spur more spending, but no meaningful programs have addressed the banking and real estate collapses. We see the impact of these issues everyday in the ‘For Sale’ and ‘For Lease’ signs in almost every neighborhood and commercial area.
Each client’s situation is different, and so the approach best suited to you depends more on what is going on in your own life. If the breadwinner in your family is out of work, or you have kids in college, or are faced with disability, or are retired (or hope to be soon) – these are the key factors in your investment allocation. While the stock market may look great, it is a mistake to be kicking yourself for having missed out on the steep increase recently.
For clients in transitional or distressed situations, we want to maintain an extra cash cushion. If your life situation is stable and your bond ladder is on-track, dollar cost averaging into the stock market is very advantageous. Now that tax season is over, we have scheduled appointments with each client to review your portfolio and make adjustments as appropriate.
It is a mistake to conclude, based on the past 2 months market activity, that you should now jump in with both feet. It is likely that we may not hit bottom until next year, and then it may take a couple of years to fully recover. Market timing is a futile waste of energy.
Treasury bond rates are low, and the feds are buying bonds to keep long term rates down, so it will be advantageous for many clients to refinance at lower rate (unless you owe more on your house that it’s worth). Jumbo mortgages (i.e. more than $417,000) however still carry very high rates and it is seldom worthwhile to refinance those.
This experience of living through the worst economic period since the Great Depression of 80 years ago will have a lasting positive impact on most of our clients. The losses will ultimately be recouped, and we are able to outlast even a continuing downturn. More importantly it has made many of us aware that we were frittering away money on things we didn’t really value. This lesson I think has to be re-learned by each generation as we discover that our Schwab statements aren’t the scorecard for our real wealth.
Finally we have seen some positive news on the financial front, and many optimists think we have hit the bottom and the stock market bounced off its low-point. It’s nice to be able to take a breath from the brutal onslaught of bad news over the past year.
We have been preaching about the dangers of being out of the market, even when it is falling, While it has been psychologically stressful to maintain equity positions over the past year, recent market activity points to the reason to refuse to market-time.
Interestingly, the average gain for the S&P 500 in the 1 year following the low close for the 8 bear markets that occurred in the last 50 years is +36.5%. The current bear market is the 9th bear market of the last half century. The closing low point (so far) of this 9th bear market was 677 and it took place 7 weeks ago on 3/09/09. In the last 7 weeks, the S&P 500 has gained 28.5% (not counting the impact of reinvested dividends.
Our clients pay us to ‘watch their backs.’ So without being an outright pessimist I think that we are still in a perilous financial situation. The future of the auto industry is teetering and we may see 2 of the ‘Big 3’ bite the dust in the next few weeks. The economic reality goes even deeper than that. We are restructuring our national economy to be able to participate in a global economy.
Our prosperity over the past 15 years was based on a world-wide spending spree, fueled by cheap credit and over-leveraged real estate. The current government nostrums are designed to spur more spending, but no meaningful programs have addressed the banking and real estate collapses. We see the impact of these issues everyday in the ‘For Sale’ and ‘For Lease’ signs in almost every neighborhood and commercial area.
Each client’s situation is different, and so the approach best suited to you depends more on what is going on in your own life. If the breadwinner in your family is out of work, or you have kids in college, or are faced with disability, or are retired (or hope to be soon) – these are the key factors in your investment allocation. While the stock market may look great, it is a mistake to be kicking yourself for having missed out on the steep increase recently.
For clients in transitional or distressed situations, we want to maintain an extra cash cushion. If your life situation is stable and your bond ladder is on-track, dollar cost averaging into the stock market is very advantageous. Now that tax season is over, we have scheduled appointments with each client to review your portfolio and make adjustments as appropriate.
It is a mistake to conclude, based on the past 2 months market activity, that you should now jump in with both feet. It is likely that we may not hit bottom until next year, and then it may take a couple of years to fully recover. Market timing is a futile waste of energy.
Treasury bond rates are low, and the feds are buying bonds to keep long term rates down, so it will be advantageous for many clients to refinance at lower rate (unless you owe more on your house that it’s worth). Jumbo mortgages (i.e. more than $417,000) however still carry very high rates and it is seldom worthwhile to refinance those.
This experience of living through the worst economic period since the Great Depression of 80 years ago will have a lasting positive impact on most of our clients. The losses will ultimately be recouped, and we are able to outlast even a continuing downturn. More importantly it has made many of us aware that we were frittering away money on things we didn’t really value. This lesson I think has to be re-learned by each generation as we discover that our Schwab statements aren’t the scorecard for our real wealth.
Wednesday, April 8, 2009
Best Case vs. Worst Case April 2009
Bert Whitehead, M.B.A., J.D. ©2009
How will this recession play out? I like to ask people that question (although many of them think I should know). I have noticed a strong correlation between a person’s economic outlook and their political leanings. The extremists on both sides focus on certain factors in the global meltdown to support their point of view. I’d like to examine the extremes on both sides and explain why both an extreme positive or negative outlook is at best a very remote possibility.
The Best Case: The Stimulus plan works as designed world-wide and the economy bottoms out at the end of this year. The rebound is very rapid so that the stock market is back up to 13,000 by the end of 2010 and unemployment drops to 5% and we all sing “Happy Days Are Here Again!” The government devises regulations for banks and oil producers with congressional oversight to control their profits and pricing. Taxes are raised on businesses, investors, and high income earners to pay for energy, education, and health care services while lowering the deficit with the increased revenue. Increased government spending causes inflation which threatens to get out of control.
The Worst Case: The worldwide economy reels toward collapse with the US government selling bonds to provide money to support an ever-expanding list of government-provided entitlements, bailouts, and subsidies. More pressure is applied to other countries to follow our lead, resulting in rising stagflation worldwide and hyper-inflation in some countries threatens to spread globally.
Gross Domestic Production world-wide drops precipitously. Higher tax rates to target the most productive sectors of the economy result in less total government revenue as sales and incomes drop. Small businesses close, or start operating under-ground. Unemployment rises and pushes the world into a global depression. Protests and crime increase as populations become more impoverished. War looms.
The Truth: Neither of the two above scenarios are going to play out to the conclusion. This economic cycle will end and we will recover at some point. Stimulus programs may do more harm than good, but we are not going to become a socialist country. The dollar will not collapse and putting all your wealth in gold or another currency to avoid being wiped out is nonsensical..
There are simply too many economic factors at work to be able to determine the outcome. Most changes in a free market are self-correcting, e.g. as the dollar weakens, more foreigners want to buy US goods, services and real estate, which ultimately strengthen our economy and the dollar rises again. Supply and demand result in short-term price swings as markets seek balance by testing the extremes. Lower beef prices mean more people will start eating beef, and then ranchers will grow more steers. The outlook is further clouded by completely unexpected events such as a California earthquake, or a war in the Middle East that shuts down 50% of the world’s oil supply.
Most readers of this blog have already been impacted by this recession, and those who haven’t yet are likely to be in the next year. The worst reaction, however, is to bank on an extreme scenario. It is just as foolish to sell everything you own to buy gold because some writer ‘proves’ that hyperinflation is inevitable. It is folly to put all your assets into real estate because it’s so cheap now, and you believe that the big turnaround has already begun. Home prices are still dropping, and I remember the wisdom of my father: “Son, never try to catch a falling knife!”
The proponents of both extremes have personal agendas that focus their paradigms. Politicians and government economists want us to believe that the trillions we are spending is a brilliant idea. Those who predict doom-and-gloom profit handsomely as stoking fear sells their books and newsletters. Emotionally it is easy for us to assume the short-term upswing in the stock market means the recession is over, or seeing the market drop 25% in a couple of months means we are headed to Armageddon.
The final outcome of this historical financial crisis will likely to take 3-7 years to work out, and I doubt that we will bottom out before 2011 or 2012. Political agendas of both parties were a factor in creating this circumstance. Many regulations now scorned were once endorsed by both parties, e.g. encouraging mortgages to provide home ownership for all Americans. This seemed like a good idea at a time but most see that financial regulations need to be adapted to suit a society where many people are very naïve in financial matters.
People on both sides of the aisle should be concerned and active in this conversation. Our political process depends on our input. But don’t let it ruin your life. Don’t let the extremists in the political arena and their counterparts in the financial media lead you to take precipitous moves with your investments.
Functional Asset Allocation takes your personal situation as the primary driver in allocating your investments. While changes will need to be made this year, we want you to be able to survive any economic trend. Our job is to make sure you can sleep at night.
How will this recession play out? I like to ask people that question (although many of them think I should know). I have noticed a strong correlation between a person’s economic outlook and their political leanings. The extremists on both sides focus on certain factors in the global meltdown to support their point of view. I’d like to examine the extremes on both sides and explain why both an extreme positive or negative outlook is at best a very remote possibility.
The Best Case: The Stimulus plan works as designed world-wide and the economy bottoms out at the end of this year. The rebound is very rapid so that the stock market is back up to 13,000 by the end of 2010 and unemployment drops to 5% and we all sing “Happy Days Are Here Again!” The government devises regulations for banks and oil producers with congressional oversight to control their profits and pricing. Taxes are raised on businesses, investors, and high income earners to pay for energy, education, and health care services while lowering the deficit with the increased revenue. Increased government spending causes inflation which threatens to get out of control.
The Worst Case: The worldwide economy reels toward collapse with the US government selling bonds to provide money to support an ever-expanding list of government-provided entitlements, bailouts, and subsidies. More pressure is applied to other countries to follow our lead, resulting in rising stagflation worldwide and hyper-inflation in some countries threatens to spread globally.
Gross Domestic Production world-wide drops precipitously. Higher tax rates to target the most productive sectors of the economy result in less total government revenue as sales and incomes drop. Small businesses close, or start operating under-ground. Unemployment rises and pushes the world into a global depression. Protests and crime increase as populations become more impoverished. War looms.
The Truth: Neither of the two above scenarios are going to play out to the conclusion. This economic cycle will end and we will recover at some point. Stimulus programs may do more harm than good, but we are not going to become a socialist country. The dollar will not collapse and putting all your wealth in gold or another currency to avoid being wiped out is nonsensical..
There are simply too many economic factors at work to be able to determine the outcome. Most changes in a free market are self-correcting, e.g. as the dollar weakens, more foreigners want to buy US goods, services and real estate, which ultimately strengthen our economy and the dollar rises again. Supply and demand result in short-term price swings as markets seek balance by testing the extremes. Lower beef prices mean more people will start eating beef, and then ranchers will grow more steers. The outlook is further clouded by completely unexpected events such as a California earthquake, or a war in the Middle East that shuts down 50% of the world’s oil supply.
Most readers of this blog have already been impacted by this recession, and those who haven’t yet are likely to be in the next year. The worst reaction, however, is to bank on an extreme scenario. It is just as foolish to sell everything you own to buy gold because some writer ‘proves’ that hyperinflation is inevitable. It is folly to put all your assets into real estate because it’s so cheap now, and you believe that the big turnaround has already begun. Home prices are still dropping, and I remember the wisdom of my father: “Son, never try to catch a falling knife!”
The proponents of both extremes have personal agendas that focus their paradigms. Politicians and government economists want us to believe that the trillions we are spending is a brilliant idea. Those who predict doom-and-gloom profit handsomely as stoking fear sells their books and newsletters. Emotionally it is easy for us to assume the short-term upswing in the stock market means the recession is over, or seeing the market drop 25% in a couple of months means we are headed to Armageddon.
The final outcome of this historical financial crisis will likely to take 3-7 years to work out, and I doubt that we will bottom out before 2011 or 2012. Political agendas of both parties were a factor in creating this circumstance. Many regulations now scorned were once endorsed by both parties, e.g. encouraging mortgages to provide home ownership for all Americans. This seemed like a good idea at a time but most see that financial regulations need to be adapted to suit a society where many people are very naïve in financial matters.
People on both sides of the aisle should be concerned and active in this conversation. Our political process depends on our input. But don’t let it ruin your life. Don’t let the extremists in the political arena and their counterparts in the financial media lead you to take precipitous moves with your investments.
Functional Asset Allocation takes your personal situation as the primary driver in allocating your investments. While changes will need to be made this year, we want you to be able to survive any economic trend. Our job is to make sure you can sleep at night.
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)